Calibrating an ice sheet model using high-dimensional binary spatial data

Rapid retreat of ice in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica may cause drastic sea level rise, posing significant risks to populations in low-lying coastal regions. Calibration of computer models representing the behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is key for informative projections of future sea level rise. However, both the relevant observations and the model output are high-dimensional binary spatial data; existing computer model calibration methods are unable to handle such data. Here we present a novel calibration method for computer models whose output is in the form of binary spatial data. To mitigate the computational and inferential challenges posed by our approach, we apply a generalized principal component based dimension reduction method. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we calibrate the PSU3D-ICE model by comparing the output from a 499-member perturbed-parameter ensemble with observations from the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet. Our methods help rigorously characterize the parameter uncertainty even in the presence of systematic data-model discrepancies and dependence in the errors. Our method also helps inform environmental risk analyses by contributing to improved projections of sea level rise from the ice sheets

Nutritional Value of Seaweed to Ruminants

We compared the nutritional quality (apparent digestible dry matter (ADDM), crude protein, total phenolics, gross energy), of 3 seaweed species (Alaria esculenta, Ascophyllum nodosum, Fucus vesiculosis) to that of 3 woody browse species{Acer rubrum, Thuja occidentalis, Abies balsamea), lichen (Usnea spp.), and winter rye (Secale cereals) for ruminants. The ADDM's of the 3 seaweeds (63-80% DM) were 11-167% DM higher and crude protein contents (12.1-14.6% DM) were 68-186% DM higher than the 3 browse species. Seaweeds had lower total phenolics (5.5-10.3% DM) and gross energy (12-15 KJ/g DM), and moderate digestible energy (DE) contents (9-10 KJ/g DM) compared to the browse species. The 3 browse species had ADDM's of 30-57% DM, crude protein contents of 5.1-7.2% DM, total phenolic concentrations of 11.6-16.4% DM, and DE contents of 6-12 KJ/g DM. Winter rye and lichen had the lowest total phenolic concentrations (1.3 and 1.9% DM) of forages examined, and had lower ADDM's (35 and 40% DM), DE contents (6-7 KJ/g DM), and crude protein (7.8 and 5.7% DM) than seaweeds. The relatively high DE and protein contents of seaweed may explain high deer densities of Maine coastal islands where browse availability and use appears to be low

Large Ensemble Modeling of the Last Deglacial Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Comparison of Simple and Advanced Statistical Techniques

A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last  ∼  20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation–age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model–data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds

Cosmology and Astrophysics from Relaxed Galaxy Clusters II: Cosmological Constraints

We present cosmological constraints from measurements of the gas mass fraction, $f_{gas}$, for massive, dynamically relaxed galaxy clusters. Our data set consists of Chandra observations of 40 such clusters, identified in a comprehensive search of the Chandra archive, as well as high-quality weak gravitational lensing data for a subset of these clusters. Incorporating a robust gravitational lensing calibration of the X-ray mass estimates, and restricting our measurements to the most self-similar and accurately measured regions of clusters, significantly reduces systematic uncertainties compared to previous work. Our data for the first time constrain the intrinsic scatter in $f_{gas}$, $(7.4\pm2.3)$% in a spherical shell at radii 0.8-1.2 $r_{2500}$, consistent with the expected variation in gas depletion and non-thermal pressure for relaxed clusters. From the lowest-redshift data in our sample we obtain a constraint on a combination of the Hubble parameter and cosmic baryon fraction, $h^{3/2}\Omega_b/\Omega_m=0.089\pm0.012$, that is insensitive to the nature of dark energy. Combined with standard priors on $h$ and $\Omega_b h^2$, this provides a tight constraint on the cosmic matter density, $\Omega_m=0.27\pm0.04$, which is similarly insensitive to dark energy. Using the entire cluster sample, extending to $z>1$, we obtain consistent results for $\Omega_m$ and interesting constraints on dark energy: $\Omega_\Lambda=0.65^{+0.17}_{-0.22}$ for non-flat $\Lambda$CDM models, and $w=-0.98\pm0.26$ for flat constant-$w$ models. Our results are both competitive and consistent with those from recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data. We present constraints on models of evolving dark energy from the combination of $f_{gas}$ data with these external data sets, and comment on the possibilities for improved $f_{gas}$ constraints using current and next-generation X-ray observatories and lensing data. (Abridged)Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures, 8 tables. Accepted by MNRAS. Code and data can be downloaded from http://www.slac.stanford.edu/~amantz/work/fgas14/ . v2: minor fix to table 1, updated bibliograph

Robust Weak-lensing Mass Calibration of Planck Galaxy Clusters

In light of the tension in cosmological constraints reported by the Planck team between their SZ-selected cluster counts and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) temperature anisotropies, we compare the Planck cluster mass estimates with robust, weak-lensing mass measurements from the Weighing the Giants (WtG) project. For the 22 clusters in common between the Planck cosmology sample and WtG, we find an overall mass ratio of \left = 0.688 \pm 0.072. Extending the sample to clusters not used in the Planck cosmology analysis yields a consistent value of $\left< M_{Planck}/M_{\rm WtG} \right> = 0.698 \pm 0.062$ from 38 clusters in common. Identifying the weak-lensing masses as proxies for the true cluster mass (on average), these ratios are $\sim 1.6\sigma$ lower than the default mass bias of 0.8 assumed in the Planck cluster analysis. Adopting the WtG weak-lensing-based mass calibration would substantially reduce the tension found between the Planck cluster count cosmology results and those from CMB temperature anisotropies, thereby dispensing of the need for "new physics" such as uncomfortably large neutrino masses (in the context of the measured Planck temperature anisotropies and other data). We also find modest evidence (at 95 per cent confidence) for a mass dependence of the calibration ratio and discuss its potential origin in light of systematic uncertainties in the temperature calibration of the X-ray measurements used to calibrate the Planck cluster masses. Our results exemplify the critical role that robust absolute mass calibration plays in cluster cosmology, and the invaluable role of accurate weak-lensing mass measurements in this regard.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

In vivo vibrometry inside the apex of the mouse cochlea using spectral domain optical coherence tomography

Sound transduction within the auditory portion of the inner ear, the cochlea, is a complex nonlinear process. The study of cochlear mechanics in large rodents has provided important insights into cochlear function. However, technological and experimental limitations have restricted studies in mice due to their smaller cochlea. These challenges are important to overcome because of the wide variety of transgenic mouse strains with hearing loss mutations that are available for study. To accomplish this goal, we used spectral domain optical coherence tomography to visualize and measure sound-induced vibrations of intracochlear tissues. We present, to our knowledge, the first vibration measurements from the apex of an unopened mouse cochlea

Hair cell force generation does not amplify or tune vibrations within the chicken basilar papilla

Frequency tuning within the auditory papilla of most non-mammalian species is electrical, deriving from ion-channel resonance within their sensory hair cells. In contrast, tuning within the mammalian cochlea is mechanical, stemming from active mechanisms within outer hair cells that amplify the basilar membrane travelling wave. Interestingly, hair cells in the avian basilar papilla demonstrate both electrical resonance and force-generation, making it unclear which mechanism creates sharp frequency tuning. Here, we measured sound-induced vibrations within the apical half of the chicken basilar papilla in vivo and found broadly-tuned travelling waves that were not amplified. However, distortion products were found in live but not dead chickens. These findings support the idea that avian hair cells do produce force, but that their effects on vibration are small and do not sharpen tuning. Therefore, frequency tuning within the apical avian basilar papilla is not mechanical, and likely derives from hair cell electrical resonance